Where is the Santa Fe Market?

Listing Success Rate

A measure of how well the market is doing is the "Listing Success Rate." The listing success rate measures the number of listings that sell relative to the total number of listings that either sell or expire, or are taken off the market during a given time period. In other words:

Listing success rate = (# of sold listings)/(# of sold listings + # of expired listings + # of listings withdrawn)

Suppose 300 listings sell and 100 listings expire & are withdrawn during a given month:

Listing success rate = (300)/(300 + 100) = 75%.

In a strong seller's market, the listing success rate will be well above 50%. In a strong buyer's market, the listing success rate will be well below 50%.

Let’s have a look. A buyer’s market is defined in economic terms as a market which has more sellers than buyers. Low prices result from this excess of supply over demand.

For the period September 1, 2009 - October 31, 2009, the single-family success rate for the City of Santa Fe was 23%. In Santa Fe County, for this same period the single-family success rate was 41%

For the period March 11, 2009 - Sept. 7, 2009 the single-family success rate in the City of Santa Fe was 40% vs. 71% for the same period in 2005. (This period in Santa Fe was approximately at the peak of the market.) In Santa Fe County for these same two periods, single-family success rates were 36% and 70% respectively.

What About Prices?

To determine whether or not prices are declining, I looked at year over year sales of comparable homes. So, I sampled what I believe to be sales that would be similar for the the period March 12 - Sept. 9. from the years 2009 and 2006. I selected homes that, I believe, have been minimally impacted by renovations and improvements that would distort my findings. Though not a scientific study, I believe that my comparison of 2009 over the same 180 days for 2006 - the Santa Fe peak sales period gives a realistic sense of home price trends. Sales prices were converted to $/Sq. Ft. for these homes to give a fair indication of price trends.

What I have found on average is that prices for detached single-family homes in the City of Santa Fe have depreciated by about 22% ($204/Sq.Ft. 2009 vs. $261/SF 2006) and sales volume down 58% (44 sales 2009 vs. 104 sales 2006).

Buyers, rely on your Realtor to negotiate the best price and conditions for you based upon their expertise and the specifics of the individual transaction.